Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Tehran University
This article aims at identifying the factors involved in affecting the travel demand to Iran. The hypothesis of the research specifies the variable of “domestic social unrest and insecurity” as the most significant obstacle that stands against an expansion of the demand for travel to Iran. To test the above hypothesis, first several demand models that have been proposed to study demand for tourism in different countries, are briefly reviewed, and then in a macro model the function of demand for travel to Iran is estimated using econometrics methods. The substantial finding is that, at the present time, the low demand for travel to Iran is not due to insufficient infrastructures and facilities, in regard to accommodations and transportation, but it is the element of “insecurity” that is the most significant hindrance to the demand growth for travel to Iran. Hence, to increase the travel demand to Iran and eliminate the present impediments, alongside economic solutions, it is necessary to elevate the security related obstacles.